Interesting thinking about thinking

Dammit, Fenster, close those blinds -- I'm trying to make a decision in here: Today brings fresh evidence that it's not wise to trust too much to your conscious mind (see " You think you know what you think? Think again"). A Dutch study on the decision-making process found that while the conscious mind, with its limited bandwidth, is find for making little choices like which cereal to buy, it tends to fumble anything much bigger. Much better choices in complex matters, the researchers found, come by "deliberating without attention," or in technical terms, "sleeping on it," letting the unconscious, with its non-linear processing system, do the heavy crunching.

D'oh! or is it Duh!

From Instapundit:

GUN REGISTRATION: Such a bad idea that even the Canadians are scrapping it. "One former Mountie called the registry 'totally useless' because criminals don't register their guns." Too bad they didn't figure that out a few billion dollars ago, but at least it's an object lesson for the United States.

Who'd 'a' thought?

Soccer highlights

Some incredible soccer highlights in this google video.

If you're into soccer at all you'll probably enjoy this.

Katrina report

I look forward to seeing a summary of this

"Our investigation revealed that Katrina was a national failure, an abdication of the most solemn obligation to provide for the common welfare," the report said. "At every level -- individual, corporate, philanthropic and governmental -- we failed to meet the challenge that was Katrina. In this cautionary tale, all the little pigs built houses of straw."

It sounds a little bombastic. I still think that first response has to be the job of the people on the ground and that most of the failure in Katrina rests with the Mayor and Governor. Yeah, the FEMA director probably was "clueless", and cetainly that reflects somewhat on his boss, but I can't see it as really being the President's responsibility except in a buck-stops-here sort of way.
I wonder if the report has anything to say about the media's horrible job of reporting on conditions in the Superdome?

Blizzard of '93

Glenn's mention of the Blizzard of '93 brought back some memories.

We lived in Knoxville - it was the spring before we moved to the great white north. I was waiting tables at Calhoun's on the River. She was a nurse at St. Mary's and pregnant with our second child. When the city shut down after we got - I think it was - 18 inches of snow, our son was at his babysitter's house, and we decided we had to go get him. Somehow we got the Civic out of the driveway and eventually got to within a couple of blocks of the sitter's house before the driver (the one who grew up in Wisconsin) went in the ditch.

We didn't want to be stuck at the sitter's house, so we walked and hitchhiked back home. There was no getting the Integra out of the driveway - well I did actually get it just out of the driveway,but then it was stuck and it was all I could do to get out of the road.

We ended up begging our neighbor - a teenager with a 4WD toyota pickup - to take us to pick up the kid. So we got into his truck which reeked of smoke (not tobacco smoke either) and took off. As we got into the sitter's neighborhood, the drifts got a good bit higher and our driver chickened out. He was afraid of getting stuck or running out of gas - 'cause most of the gas stations were closed. So he ended up dropping us off on the wrong side of our stuck car and we walked in to get the boy.
Our sitter was not too sure about the whole situation. Our boy was three at the time and our plan - such as it was - was to walk out to the main road (Chapman Highway) and get a ride towards home.

Well it was a long walk out to Chapman, but we were young and it was an adventure so I guess that made it okay. Matt was fine with it, I think. He walked most of the way. Eventually we got out to Chapman and it didn't take too long for someone in an RV to stop. They were hippies hot on the trail of 'white gas' (propane) and did we know of anywhere that was open and selling it. We didn't but they offered us a ride in the back of their vehicle with their dog. The dog, naturally, turned out to be a pit bull who - at least to my parental eyes - seemed to be sizing up the boy as a possible snack. I spent the entire trip keeping myself between the dog and the child.

They dropped us off and we walked the rest of the way home - me, my 6 month pregnant wife, and our three-year-old son. We were very happy to get home to our cold, dark home.

The hospital ended up sending a van to pick Gerri up since there was no way our cars were going anywhere. They were also opening the hospital to employee's families, but I said we'd be fine in the house without heat or lights or pretty much anything but a lot of snow outside. We did have a gas grill to cook on, and at night I used it to heat water that I poured in gallon milk jugs and took to bed with us. It was cold and I remember I didn't sleep well, because I kept waking up to check on Matt.

The Great Zucch

Lileks recommended this piece about a children's entertainer in the Washington DC area. I second his praise. The writing is wonderful and the story as well. I was struck by the way the Great Zucchini's dysfunctions seemed wrapped up so intimately with his genius. He's a gambling addict and a kid's magician. Gambling is like another magic trick - predicting the winner of a game, throwing a particular combination of dice. At the craps table he's as popular with adults (while he's winning) as he is with the kids at one of his gigs.
Now if he'd just bump his rates by $100 and hire an assistant to manage his life he'd be golden.

Frey tempest

I'm not a big fan of Oprah, anyway, and I didn't see the show where she lambasted James Frey.

I did read the book - A Million Little Pieces - though. I thought it was excellent - powerful, raw, compelling. It matters less than a whit to me if some of the details were not strictly factual. I don't see how it compromises the message of the book in any way. If it were entirely fictional it would be no less powerful.

I think it's a shame that Oprah couldn't say the same.

Yeah, that sounds good ...

Say Anything's SOTU

Google's evil

Google's crossroads deal with China has a lot of people upset, and certainly it's a slippery slope they tread. But I'm not convinced that they've truly - at least with this deal - turned their back on their famous motto.

I think they sat down and they made a real world decision recognizing how bad it would look, but that the potential for good outweighed the blow to their cred.

Google of all organizations has to understand how hard it is to effectively censor the internet. Information flows too quickly and in too many directions to be easily confined. I suspect that China's thought police do not yet grok this in fullness.

Google, however, certainly does. At the same time, they can't come right out and say so.

I think Google.cn will be good for the Chinese people, though now it appears to support a totalitarian regime.

I guess we'll see.

Car Quiz

If you're an RX-8 (like a certain prominent blogger) then your WhichSportsCar Quiz must look a lot like this:

Are you an Italian exotic or an American muscle car? A classic roadster or a high-tech racer?

This test will show you your true inner vehicle...

Are you passionate?
Yes

Do you change direction quickly?
No

Are you powerful?
No

Are you loud?
No

Are you high-maintenance?
No

Do you easily spin out of control?
No

Do you like to go topless in the summer?
No

Are you competitive?
Yes

Are you practical?
Yes

Do you have expensive tastes?
No

Are you happy in the rain?
Yes

Which tool would you be more comfortable wielding?
Sledgehammer

I don't know, Glenn, I think you're somewhat powerful ...

Hmmm. Can't complain ...

I'm a Porsche 911!

You have a classic style, but you're up-to-date with the latest technology. You're ambitious, competitive, and you love to win. Performance, precision, and prestige - you're one of the elite,and you know it.

Take the Which Sports Car Are You? quiz.

Lileks

At the checkout Gnat saw a Seasonal My Little Pony named Wish I Might – it had red wings and a red box of chocolates on its haunch. Special to Target. She was enthralled. When she wasn't looking I tossed it in the basket, and took it out when we were in the car.

She was ecstatic. Daddy, why did you get this for me?

Because it's special for Valentine's day. Because I knew it would surprise you, and you didn't beg, and because I thought it would make this day even better. Because I like to make you happy.

I can never say the other reason: because some day you won't want a My Little Pony.

This is not good

40% of children fall asleep without a resident father regularly within reach

travesty

If you haven't heard the story of Cory Maye, take a look at this.

Lileks and Atkins

I wrote everything at home – a rare five-column day, alas – and ventured out only to go the grocery store, where I confronted the fact that I am fargin' sick of Atkins, and want a stack of pancakes about seventeen miles high. Also caramel rolls and cinnamon buns and burritos with warm soft tortillas and all the other things I forbid myself in order to maintain a trim physique in case I should be required, by some sort of public referendum, to walk around naked all the time. When it's two. 

lileks nails the essence of a happy childhood

It's not really what you remember when you're older. It's what you don't have to remember or try to forget.


--
tom

"Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work." - Stephen King (1947-)

Downsize FEMA

This article from the WSJ describes how the nations business community was the driving force behind a vast relief effort in Katrina's wake. They recommend FEMA take some pointers from the people who do logistics 24/7.

That just seems silly to me. FEMA's never going to be proficient at the kinds of things that FedEx and WalMart do day in and day out. Instead of trying to train FEMA, lets just downsize it. Put them in the position of doing long-term projects that aren't so time-sensitive, but that require a more substantial commitment than our corporate first responders can probably sustain.

I know. Downsizing government - that's just crazy talk.

Obi-wan or Gandalf

Warning: Harry Potter spoiler ahead.

I've been reading the newest Harry Potter book to my kids and we're nearing the end. We were a little depressed at Dumbledore's death. After the initial attack I was sure Snape had only pretended to kill Dumbledore and had actually healed him. But it definitly seems he's dead - like Obi-Wan and not like Gandalf. I wonder how Rowling will replace Harry's protector and two most common nemeses?

We have only the last chapter to finish and we'll be anxiously awaiting the next installment.

Damn it.

Romantic cruise

My wife and I decided to take a moonlight boat ride the other night after the kids were tucked in. As we were leaving our cove, I pulled up on the driver's seat so I could better see over the windshield and the whole seat pulled right out of the floor. I had just 'fixed' the seat a couple of days before, but apparently my screws didn't take. So I drove the rest of the way standing up. I prefer that anyway.

There's a small island in the lake near the northern shore where we stopped and dropped anchor. We sat for a while enjoying the night and having the lake to ourselves - there wasn't another boat to be seen. We chatted and finished our drinks and listened to the stereo. After a while we noticed that the storm we'd been watching seemed to be getting close enough that we ought to head for cover. I pulled the anchor in and went to start the motor, but it wouldn't turn over. The gas tank showed a quarter tank, but we'd had trouble with it not being too accurate. I was sure we were out of gas.

I dropped the anchor again to keep us from ending up on the rocks by the island and we considered our options. I had grabbed my cell phone as we were walking out the door so that was good., but it was late and we didn't really know anyone else who lived on the lake. After a little discussion I called our son at home and told him we wanted him to go next door and see if our neighbor would come out and tow us back in.

Naturally, he didn't want to do this, and said, "Don't you have a paddle?"

This had occurred to me, but we were a good ways from home and it's a fairly heavy boat. I said something along the lines of "A paddle?!"

Well, that was all my wife needed to hear - "That's right! We have a paddle. We'll just paddle in."

Great.

So she handed me the paddle and she grabbed one of the skis and we commenced to paddling for home. After a little practice we were making pretty good progress and had made it maybe a third of the way home when the wind came up. Of course it was blowing right in our face and all of a sudden we couldn't seem to keep the boat pointed toward home. The wind kept pushing the nose around and tired as we already were, we couldn't get it turned.

By this time the wind had pushed us to within about 50 yards of the shore, but further from home. I decided to drop anchor again while we rested for a minute and tried to come up with a new plan. I tossed the anchor toward shore and let us drift back. Looking around we saw we were right by a private neighborhood marina and thought if we could get over there we could just tie the boat up and walk home. The problem was the wind was trying to blow us past the marina toward the north shore where we'd have ended up with a MUCH longer walk around the lake.

The anchor had given me an idea, though. When I had dropped it last I had tossed it toward shore. As the boat drifted with the wind we wound up a few feet closer to the marina. I thought if I could just keep doing that we could slowly make our way in.

I grabbed the line and pulled in the slack until the boat was back over the anchor. Then I pulled the anchor up to find it covered in weeds. The wet weeds more than doubled the weight of the anchor and severely hampered my ability to do much more than just drop it in the water. I tried to swing it toward the marina, but it didn't go far and the next time I pulled it up it seemed to have attracted even more weeds. Refusing to give in, however, I tried swinging it back and forth a little before heaving it once more toward our destination.

In retrospect, standing on the nose of a moving boat swinging a 40 pound weight on a rope seems like an obviously misguided idea. I promptly found myself in the water. When my wife appeared leaning over the side of the boat - after having gotten control of her laughter - I handed her my cell phone which had, of course, been in my pocket. As I handed it to her, I noticed it was ringing - not for long, though. We found out later that it was our son calling back to check on us. When we didn't answer he just went to bed.

Our next plan was that we would tie a couple of our ropes together and I'd swim into the marina and then I could pull the boat in and we'd tie it off and walk home. I took off my already wet shirt, grabbed the end of the rope, dove in, and headed for shore.

Naturally I didn't have enough rope to make it all the way. I swam back to the boat, added a ski rope to my other rope and took another crack at it. This time I made all the way in and was able to pull the boat in - after my wife strained her back pulling the weed enveloped anchor up - and tie it to the dock.

All that was left was for us to walk home - barefoot of course - and fall into bed just as the rain started coming down. Apparently the rain gods missed a meeting as they obviously should have arrived much earlier.

I got up early the next morning, grabbed our two six-gallon gas cans, filled them up, and parked at the marina. After emptying the first one into the boat, I once again turned the ignition. No good. The starter sounded fine, but the engine wouldn't turn over.

Okay. Maybe it's the battery - although it doesn't sound like it. So I go back to the truck and head home to pick up the jump starter I bought last year when we kept running our battery down. Hooked it up to the boat battery and tried the ignition.

Nope. No go. At this point I was fuming - sure that something was Really Wrong with the boat and I was going to have to beg someone to tow us to a boat ramp so we could trailer it and take it into the shop. As I stood looking around the boat, trashed from our efforts of the previous night, I noticed a red cord laying on the ground.

Our boat has a safety feature that consists of a switch attached to a string with a clip on the other end which one is supposed to attach to one's clothing while driving the boat. I guess the idea is that if you get thrown out of the boat, the switch is pulled free and kills the engine so that the boat doesn't just keep going. Apparently, as we were moving the broken driver's seat around after we'd anchored the boat we pulled the switch loose.

I picked the cord up, reattached the switch, and turned the key.

The boat started right up.

Rehnquist 5

Dave Kopel investigates the history of the term "Rehnquist Five" and finds its first use in 1988. As used most recently, the five are "Rehnquist and O'Connor, Scalia, Anthony Kennedy and Thomas". So who was number five back in '88 - before Thomas was appointed in '91?